The automotive industry is no stranger to disruption, but what’s coming by 2035 might just redefine the aftermarket as we know it.
In a recent report titled “The European Aftermarket in 2035”, BCG lays out a vision of sweeping transformation. As someone who’s spent years working across the automotive, construction, and industrial equipment sectors, I see this report not just as a forecast or vision, but as a direct message to OEMs, dealers, and parts suppliers: Change is here, are you ready?
Three Forces Driving the Shift
BCG identifies three major disruptors that are reshaping the aftermarket landscape:
1. Electrification
Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to account for 40% of the car parc in Europe by 2035. This is a seismic shift. With fewer moving parts and less routine maintenance, EVs could reduce aftermarket revenues by approximately $15 billion. This would seem like future trouble for traditional service models, but at the same time opens doors for new players and strategies focused on EV systems, diagnostics, and battery lifecycle management.
2. Digitalization & Vehicle Connectivity
Today’s combustion vehicles, hybrid, and EVs are generating mountains of data, from engine and general vehicle diagnostics to driver behavior and activity. This data has the potential to unlock predictive maintenance strategies, active retention campaigns, remote troubleshooting, and even software-based upgrades for their vehicle. But there’s still a catch: Who owns the data? OEMs? Drivers? Third parties? This question will define the power dynamics of the aftermarket in the years to come.
3. Changing Consumer Expectations
Today’s customers demand transparency, speed, and digital convenience. Think online booking, real-time service updates, and mobile repair options. Those who fail to meet these expectations risk being left behind, regardless of brand legacy or number of rooftops.
What It Means for Industry Stakeholders
OEMs:
Brands still hold the keys to the castle, literally, to the connected vehicle ecosystem. Monetizing data and offering digital services will be essential, but trust and collaboration with dealers and repair networks must be part of the equation. Also considering the increasing relevance of large dealer groups acquiring smaller ones while investing big budgets in optimitizing IT systems and digitizing their operations.
Dealers:
Business digitization, streamline operations through software and digital tools, and EV sales-service readiness is no longer optional. Dealer groups must reinforce technician training, implement digital service platforms, and tools that will engage and nurture relationships with end customers in and out of the dealership. The dealer’s competitive edge lies in how fast and well they can adapt to market conditions and demanding customer needs.
Aftermarket Suppliers & Independent workshops:
Diversify your parts product offerings and start thinking beyond oil filters and brake pads. EV parts, ADAS calibration systems, and connected service tools are your future growth areas. Now is the time to organize. Advocate for fair access to vehicle data, invest in EV diagnostics, and explore partnerships with digital platforms that expand your service footprint.
My Perspective: It’s Not About Shrinking the Aftersales Business, It’s About Shifting it
I see this transformation as a massive opportunity for those who are ready to pivot. While traditional revenue streams may decline, entirely new markets are opening if you’re willing to invest in skills, tech, and strategy. This BCG report reinforces a key truth: the aftermarket certainly isn’t dying, it’s evolving, and the winners will be those who evolve with it.
How is your organization preparing for the shift?
Drop your thoughts in the comments or connect with me directly. Stay tuned to OEMpulse.com for more insights at the intersection of technology, industry, and the people who keep machines running.